PLAYING IT SMART by ALAN KRIGMAN

Know your gambling goals then pick games and strategies to match

Solid citizens may have any number of reasons for patronizing their friendly neighborhood casinos. Not all of them necessarily involve money. But, objectives vary even when they do. And although few people appreciate it, inherent differences in games affect the likelihood of achieving whatever goals they may have. While the specifics may be highly personal and span a wide range, they tend to fall into three general categories.

Some folks simply want to fill their fanny packs with as much gelt as they can garner and invest it all on a try for more than they'll ever hope to have any other way. It won't happen on a $200 stake betting $5 a shot on Red at roulette. Or starting with $500 and betting between $10 and $50 per hand at blackjack.

Going from $200, $300, or $500 to the hundred thousand or higher ranges means giant jackpots. Slot machines, or side bets like those in Caribbean Stud. It's a matter of time as much as probability. On longshots with huge payoffs, one round -- however remote the chance -- can do it. At games with payoffs close or equal to even money, it would take too many coups. Unless players keep pressing their bets. Which then introduces factors such as maximum wagers a casino would book or the bravado of a two-bit bettor who somehow amasses big bucks and is willing to risk it on one throw of the dice, spin of the wheel, or turn of the cards.

Other individuals view gambling primarily as an entertainment experience. Sure, they'd like to earn a profit. The more the merrier. But, of greater importance is ensuring that their stakes suffice to keep them in action for the three, four, or more hours they plan to play. This is most easily achieved simply by making bets that are small fractions of their total bankrolls.

Endurance is also extended by games with low edge. As an example, consider the odds of not going broke within 1,000 rounds on a $100 bankroll betting $5 each time in a game paying even money. Fighting 1 percent edge, the chance of survival is 70 percent. At 2 percent edge, the degree of confidence drops to 59 percent.

Volatility, normal bankroll fluctuation, is an endurance factor as well. Volatility is measured by "standard deviation." In an even-money game, this equals approximately one bet. And it's what yields the 59 percent chance of lasting 1,000 rounds betting $5 from a $200 bankroll against a 2 percent edge. Say a 2 percent game had less frequent but higher payoffs, such that standard deviation rose to one and a half bets. Survival rate with the same $5 wager falls to 45 percent. More volatility means wilder upswings and downswings. Players who don't have exit strategies at the peaks are vulnerable in the valleys.

Maybe your criterion isn't to break the bank, or to play for some desired period, but to earn a fixed amount. Make believe you'd like to double your bankroll. Start with $200 and earn $200. As always, all else being equal, the lower the edge the more optimistic your outlook. Unlike the case for session duration targets, though, betting low relative to your bankroll works against you. Essentially because more winning rounds are needed to reach a goal. And more rounds means more nibbles by the house's edge from your stash. To illustrate the effect, betting $5 in an even-money game with 1 percent edge, your chance of doubling $200 is 31 percent; betting $10, it's up to 40 percent.

Analogously, volatility is your enemy when you're playing for time and your friend when you have win goals and loss limits. With 1 percent edge and a standard deviation of one bet, you have that 31 percent chance of doubling a $200 bankroll before going broke with $5 wagers. Were the standard deviation equal to two bets because some outcomes had high payoffs, the probability of success would go up to 45 percent at the same $5 betting level.

You may, of course, still want to believe that gambling is all just paying your money and taking your chances. If so, you missed the message in this muttering by the muse, Sumner A Ingmark:

Establish where you want to go.
For how else could you hope to know,
The path most apt to get you there,
And what the hurdles you must clear?

(c) 2005, ICON/Information Concepts Inc

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