Casinos Online-Internet Gambling Overestimating Your Chances of a Hit

Probability and the 50 50 Bet
Jacks or Better Video Poker
By the Time Progressives Hit
Before You Can Expect to Win?
All-or-Nothing Gambles
Percentages are Fact, not Opinion (Baccarat)
Winners May Need Advice
Know What You Can and Can't Control in the Casino
$10 bets at double-zero roulette
Law, Luck, and the Leningrad Elephant
Blackjack Hands
Gambling Advice
Nickel Slots
Simpler is better
Spreading money around the craps table
Best dealers upcard for Blackjack players
Picking numbers and RNGs
Results after quitting the game
Witless winners
Bankrolls
Bankrolls 2
Betting Progressions
Bank roll fluctuations in Blackjack
Flipping a coin
Laws of Probability
Bad Start to a Game
Game Show Comparisons
Quick Fixes
Place Betting at Craps

Balance Between Chance and Payoff
Self Help Quiz
Quitting While Ahead
Betting on Don't Come in Craps
House Edge vs. Betting Strategies
Anticipating Bankroll Savings
Rules to Estimate Chances of Success
Even Fighting Edge
Beating the Odds to Overcome Edge
Strategy for Craps Fans
Gambling Books
Intuition in games
Betting at Craps
Chances of Recurring Numbers
Can Casinos Predict Jackpots?
Gambling Theories, History, and Other Lies
Overestimating Your Chances of a Hit
Give Lay Bets at Craps a Look-See

PLAYING IT SMART by ALAN KRIGMAN

Are You Overestimating Your Chances of a Hit?

How often, at video poker, have you started with what you thought a strong four cards to a straight, flush, or straight flush, then got zonked? Probably enough to wonder whether something you said to a slot attendant had the casino tightening the payout screws.

There are no such screws, of course. The problem, common to most forms of gambling, is that few solid citizens have much of a grasp on the likelihoods of the outcomes they either desire or dread. Completing a four-card straight, flush, or straight flush ought to be a piece of cake. Right? Well, let's see.

Take a double-ended outside straight such as 4-5-6-7, mixed suits, nothing wild. You've seen five cards -- four you've held, one you tossed. So 47 remain in the 52-card virtual deck. To win, you need any of eight cards, four threes or four eights. Your outlook is to average eight hits in 47 tries, only 17 percent.

Inside and single-ended outside straights, for instance 4-6-7-8 and A-2-3-4, respectively, are even tougher to complete. With nothing wild, only one rank -- four possibilities -- will do the trick: any five in either of these cases. The prognosis for success is four out of 47, a mere 8.5 percent.

If you play jacks or better and hold one or more face cards, you can miss the straight and salvage your bet on a high pair. With 8-9-10-J, the chance is three in 47 -- almost 6.5 percent -- of pairing the jack. With 9-10-J-Q, six cards yield a high pair, twice as good at nearly 13 percent. And 10-J-Q-K offers nine ways out of 47, over 19 percent; this is 17 plus 19 or 36 percent in all. J-Q-K-A is superior from the high pair perspective, but is single-ended and costs you 8.5 percent on the possible straight.

Perhaps you prefer joker-poker. Now, 4-5-6-7 means you need the joker or any three or eight -- nine out of the 48 remaining, or close to 19 percent. Easier, but not by much. If one of the cards you hold is the joker, your prospects depend on where it is. On an end is best. For example 5-6-7-X completes with any three, four, eight, or nine. This is 16 out of 48 or 33 percent. In the middle, maybe 5-X-7-8, you'd win with any four, six, or nine: 12 out of 48 or 25 percent. A joker in the hand also beats one in the deck because matching any hard rank already held yields triplets; that's nine cards out of 48, around 19 percent chance.

How about flushes? When nothing's wild, starting with four of the same suit means nine are left in the 47 remaining cards. Your chance is nine out of 47, just over 19 percent. With one joker wild, this goes up to 10 out of 48 -- roughly 21 percent. One of the four cards you hold already being the joker doesn't change the probability of a flush. You've used three of the target suit so 10 are left in the 48 remaining cards. But, as with a joker and three to a straight, you can make triplets if the flush falls through, with the chance also being nine out of 48 or 19 percent.

Possible straight flushes offer more possibilities. Say your game is nothing wild. Your top shot would be an outside four-card possible straight flush. Considering high pairs, best is a suited 10-J-Q-K. You have two ways out of 47, 4.25 percent, to make the straight flush. This leaves seven ways out of 47 (almost 15 percent) for a flush, six out of 47 (nearly 13 percent) for a straight, and the same 19 percent for a high pair. That's close to 51 percent in all. An inside or single-ended straight flush drops you to one card out of 47 for the straight flush and three out of 47 for the straight, 2.1 and 6.4 percent, respectively. The chance of a flush is again nine out of 47, or 19 percent.

With a joker, the hardiest four-card possible straight flush is the 5-6-7-X type. Four cards make a biggie (8.3 percent), 10 a flush (20.8 percent), 12 a straight (25 percent), and nine trips (18.8 percent) -- 72.9 percent prospects of at least some return.

So it's in probabilities, which aren't all that high, not in how you talk to slot attendants. But, be gracious to those who serve you in the casino anyway. As the poet, Sumner A Ingmark, advised:

Guard against antisocial proclivity,
When engaging in stressful activity.

(c) 2001, ICON/Information Concepts Inc




English Harbour is one of the finest casinos online. They offer you your own personalized start page, $35 free with a minimum first purchase of $35 and first rate software.The software must be downloaded, but the wait is well worth it.The largest slot machine jackpots on the internet.


Slot Land has added a new exciting game to their online gambling site : the WildHeart. This variation of a popular Double Joker video poker offers TRIPLE play giving you a chance of winning on THREE paylines at a time. Two wild cards that may be substituted for any card. The best hand, a Royal Flush, pays off up to the amount of our progressive jackpot. NO DOWNLOADS a webtv favorite.

The Sands of the Caribbean Online Casino and Sports Book

I feel as a website owner, one of my responsibilities is to search the internet and provide you, the gambler, with the very best online casinos the worldwide web has to offer.The Sands rates as one of these online casinos.
They offer over 40 games for online gambling, progressive jackpots, single and multiplayer games and sportsbetting.
The games include everyone's favorites: blackjack, slots, video poker and more. Their sportsbetting service is the one and only service I use when I want to bet online. The ongoing comp programs rate as one of the best the internet has to offer.
Download required, but definitely worth it!!

Internet Casinos

Internet casinos listed at gambling casinos online.com are for the players looking for reliable places to gamble online. I gamble for enjoyment.

Internet casinos or online sports betting casinos can ask to be listed, if the website visitors have any problems with your product you will be given an opportunity to solve the problem. Unsolved problems and your services will be removed from this website.

Internet Casinos-Gambling Online